Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- How inflationary is the border closure? We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts Surging virus cases have cast a shadow over Vietnam’s near-term outlook, but there has also been some good news in the form of Monday’s announcement of a resolution to the long-running currency... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2021) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.6% y/y in the middle of July means that the headline rate is overshooting the central bank’s latest projections. That’s likely to tip the balance on Copom towards... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update New CPI weights will keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new CPI weights will prevent inflation from rising by as much as in the US but, with firms’ selling price expectations continuing to increase, the risks to inflation still seem to... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of July was mainly due to fuel inflation dropping back, while the core rate remained stubbornly high at 4.6% y/y. The... 22nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
