Latin America Data Response

Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Dec.)

The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 10.4% y/y, in mid-December is likely to be followed by further declines in the coming months. Inflation in Mexico edged up in the same period, to 7.45% y/y, but we...

23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long

The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales...

23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher

This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still...

22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries

Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at...

22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022

Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that...

22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Underlying inflation to linger even as headline rates fall

The inflation outlook for 2022 will be dominated by three key themes. First, headline rates will fall owing to a mixture of fading re-opening inflation, falling commodity prices, and base effects...

22nd December 2021 · 15 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia

Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community...

22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read

China Chart Pack

The People’s Bank is not pleased

The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest...

22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read

Global Central Bank Watch

A hawkish pivot

With underlying inflation set to stay uncomfortably high for at least the next six months, we expect most central banks to continue or begin raising interest rates next year. But in some cases...

21st December 2021 · 6 mins read

US Chart Pack

Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum

The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to...

21st December 2021 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation

Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in...

20th December 2021 · 15 mins read

India Chart Pack

Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022

Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year...

20th December 2021 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey’s crisis in four charts

Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs...

17th December 2021 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

2021 in review

For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia...

17th December 2021 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on

Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose...

17th December 2021 · 6 mins read