Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals

The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now...

5th August 2021 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build

The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be...

5th August 2021 · 3 mins read

Asia Data Response

Philippines CPI (July)

After dropping back to just within the central bank’s target range for the first time this year, headline inflation in the Philippines is set to continue falling in the coming months. This will open...

5th August 2021 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Are investors concerned about peak big-tech earnings?

The share prices of most of the US big-tech firms have faltered – and underperformed the broader market – since they reported another quarter of consensus-beating earnings results last week. This has...

4th August 2021 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

How best to gauge underlying pay pressure

If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the...

4th August 2021 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics

Strong recovery to continue in Q3

The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a...

4th August 2021 · 12 mins read

Canada Economics Update

How do our key calls compare with the consensus?

Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the...

4th August 2021 · 4 mins read

UK Economics

Inflation expectations & pay growth key to policy tightening

A bumper rise in utilities prices in October could contribute to CPI inflation climbing to a 10-year high of 4.4% in November. But as we don’t expect higher CPI inflation to feed through into higher...

3rd August 2021 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year...

3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics

Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed.

2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics

Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data

Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory...

30th July 2021 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening

The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile...

30th July 2021 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics

CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals

Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation...

30th July 2021 · 9 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria

"Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal...

30th July 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead

The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to...

30th July 2021 · 5 mins read