Asia Economics Weekly Philippines in no rush to hike, new growth forecasts Falling inflation and an increasingly uncertain economic outlook add weight to our non-consensus view that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) will not tighten monetary policy in 2022. Meanwhile... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022 We expect GDP to grow strongly once the current restrictions are eased, but we are sceptical that either GDP growth or inflation will be as high this year as widely anticipated. This leads us to think... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) Germany’s HICP inflation rate fell to 5.7% in December and is now past its peak, but the national CPI measure, which is arguably a better indicator at the moment, rose slightly. Looking ahead, we... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Six key calls and three risks for the UK in 2022 Our new forecasts for 2022 envisage CPI inflation rising further than most expect to a peak of 7% and the Bank of England raising interest rates quicker, from 0.25% now to 1.25% by the end of the year... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Omicron will add to upward pressure on inflation The Omicron variant will probably result in a stagnation in consumption this quarter. However, by worsening supply shortages it will only add to the upward pressure on inflation. The upshot is that it... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022 We think euro-zone GDP growth will be lower than most anticipate this year, at around 3.5%, while inflation will come down towards 2% by year-end allowing the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Key calls for 2022 As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that Indian GDP growth will accelerate this year. At the same time, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than generally expected... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Key calls for 2022 We expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year as services spending finally returns to near-normal. However, the risks to that forecast remain tilted to the downside as... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP tightening continues as inflation hits fresh high The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.25% today and we expect at least another 75bp of tightening, to 3.00%, in the next few months. But with energy bills set... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing ahead of Omicron hit The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices... 4th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2021) Headline inflation picked up in November due to another acceleration in energy inflation and a further rise in fresh food inflation. Underlying inflation remained weak, and while it will accelerate... 24th December 2021 · 2 mins read
