Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Chinese inflation dropped back last month, consistent with our view that the acceleration in price gains in earlier months would prove temporary. We think factory-gate inflation will continue to... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a four-month low of 10.1% y/y in December confirmed that the recent food and energy inflation spikes are starting to unwind. But with the headline rate still far... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 5.9% y/y in December and it is likely to increase further over the coming months, peaking around the mid-point of the central bank’s target range in Q2. This... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Mexico stabilised at 7.4% y/y in December and, with price pressures likely to remain strong, we expect Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike, to 6.00%, at its meeting in February... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Dec.) After reaching 5.0% in December, headline euro-zone inflation should fall this year as the energy component plummets. But we think that core inflation will remain around 2%. 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
