Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone GDP barely grew in Q4, inflation risks rise Data released this week suggest that our assumption that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4 could be too optimistic, but we still think that the economy will grow in Q1. Meanwhile, rapid house price... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation fears to keep central banks in tightening mode There were signs that supply shortages were starting to ease in some places at the tail end of 2021. World trade was its strongest since shortages began to bite a year ago and industrial production... 14th January 2022 · 13 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages While we think Japan’s economy entered 2022 just above its pre-pandemic level, consumer spending will probably be knocked back this quarter by light-touch restrictions which are likely to be reimposed... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Omicron surging, asset sales progressing COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation edged up to 1.2% y/y in December and we think that the headline rate will drift a little higher over the first half of this year before stabilising at around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) CPI inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.0% in December and, although the headline rate has probably peaked now, core CPI inflation increased to 5.5% last month and will continue to climb toward 6% over... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation won’t be the fiscal boon many assume While the general perception is that higher inflation is unambiguously good for the public finances, the reality is a bit more nuanced. The Chancellor will almost certainly be gifted with a lower... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
