Europe Economics Euro-zone Final HICP (July) The final euro-zone inflation data for July show that global supply problems have not pushed up goods prices dramatically, and “re-opening inflation” has been limited so far. We think that base... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in July, to 4.6% y/y, as fears that recent violent unrest would fuel inflation pressures proved to be overdone. Underlying price pressures remain soft and... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s drop in CPI inflation is likely to be followed by sharp rises in the next few months, taking inflation to a peak of about 4.5% by the end of the year. But provided the spike in inflation does... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Policymakers will probably take comfort in the latest fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.4% y/y in July, even as price pressures mount in major price categories outside of food. Interest... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will rents push up consumer price inflation? Most attention has been concentrated on the transient drivers of higher inflation, but a more sustainable pick-up in rent inflation is also underway in the US. This Update recaps how rents are treated... 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The drop in India’s headline wholesale price inflation in July came on the back of an easing in fuel and food inflation, both of which have further to run. And with headline CPI inflation having... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Peak global growth narrative lacks nuance Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently... 12th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields and oil prices will continue to diverge Although the two markets have often moved in tandem, we expect Treasury yields to continue to rise over the next few years even as oil prices resume their decline. 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped below the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range in July, and we think further falls are likely. With the economy also still weak, there should be little... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
