India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (August) While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Post-payrolls jump in Treasury yields likely to continue While the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield following the surprisingly weak August non-farm payrolls report is somewhat counterintuitive, we still expect bond yields to rise further. 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly From not enough jobs to not enough workers It’s remarkable how quickly the fear keeping policymakers awake at night has shifted from there being too many people out of work to there not being enough people to fill all the vacant jobs... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation reading of 19.3% y/y in August doesn’t rule out the start of an easing cycle later this year. However, we now only see scope for an interest rate cut at... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update A summer catch-up The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s drought adds to inflation and fiscal risks Brazil’s drought is getting worse and the impact on hydropower production and electricity tariffs will result in higher inflation than we’d previously thought. Fiscal risks could also intensify if the... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
