US Economics Weekly Labour market shortages getting worse Tapering is off the table this month and whether the Fed will make an announcement before year-end depends on the strength of employment, which is being held back by increasingly acute labour... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight How long will pandemic price pressures last? Global supply problems could put some further upward pressure on inflation in the near term, but the increase in inflation experienced in the immediate wake of the COVID crisis is close to peaking and... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A look ahead to December’s ECB meeting Following yesterday’s comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Bank looks set to make crucial decisions about the future of QE at its December meeting. We suspect that it will end its net... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: BCRP stepping up pace of tightening Yesterday’s larger 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, delivered by Peru’s central bank (BCRP) suggests it is becoming increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. With inflation set to stay above the 1... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell for the fifth month in a row in August, and is likely to remain steady at about half the Bank’s target rate over the next six months... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout accelerates, MSP hikes muted India’s vaccine rollout has shifted into a higher gear over the past couple of weeks, but the slow start means that it would still take several months before a large majority of the population is... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 9.7% y/y last month was driven by a broad-based strengthening of price pressures. With the economy re-opening and electricity tariffs hiked this month... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s core measures point to sustained inflation ahead In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted alternative measures of inflation, including the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE and inflation ex-durable goods, which he claimed were... 9th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 5.6% y/y in August masks a further rise in core inflation, to 4.8% y/y, which will be a concern for the central bank. This suggests that its gradual... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 5.7% y/y in August, the fastest pace recorded since April last year, and looks set to increase further over then next couple of months. Against this backdrop... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to a fresh five-year high of 6.7% y/y in August and, while there are some tentative signs that price pressures have started to soften recently, we think the central bank’s... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 4.8% y/y in August suggests that the central bank’s tightening cycle has a lot further to run. We expect a further 100bp of rate hikes, to 2.50%, by end-2021... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
