Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Rising costs – from shipping to energy – are likely to push euro-zone inflation up even further in the coming months. They might also mean that it doesn’t fall quite as quickly next year as we... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Struggling to generate inflation even now While inflation in most advanced economies is now well above central banks’ targets, it is still negative in Japan. This is largely due to idiosyncratic factors that should fade by the middle of next... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Rising cyclical pressure will keep inflation elevated The spread of the Delta variant domestically has triggered a temporary reversal in the reopening inflation in high contact services, but its spread across other parts of the world will intensify... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to remain near 4% for next six months Recent developments have prompted us to revise up our inflation forecasts for the coming few quarters, although we still expect inflation to decline to less than 2% in the second half of next year. 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a post-pandemic surge in demand fuel inflation? Demand was always likely to rebound strongly as economies re-opened and confidence returned. Beyond this, though, there are reasons to think that we could now be in for a period of sustained strong... 16th September 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of inflation and bond yields in the UK and US The renewed rise in consumer price inflation in the UK reported today contrasts with the dip in the US announced yesterday. Admittedly, the former has risen from a low level, while the latter has... 15th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics The rise in consumer prices is not widespread A deeper dive into the CPI figures supports our initial analysis that the bulk of the jump in inflation from 2.0% in July to 3.2% in August is due to base effects linked to falling consumer prices in... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
