CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The renewed rise in Mexican headline and core inflation in the first two weeks of September, to 5.9% y/y and 4.9% y/y respectively, ensures that Banxico will continue its tightening cycle at its... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s LNG shielded from Europe price spike for now Japan’s reliance on fixed, long-term contracts for its natural gas supply should limit the impact on consumers of the recent surge in gas spot prices currently being felt most acutely across parts of... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer... 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
CE Spotlight How much is too much? Inflation’s costs and benefits A period of moderately higher inflation could be a good thing for many economies, but there is a risk that policymakers become too accepting of the situation. We judge that the costs of higher... 21st September 2021 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery slowing down a gear There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while... 20th September 2021 · 12 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
