Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2022) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s inflation to 10.8% y/y over the first half of February is likely to mean that the central bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. We expect a... 23rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Jan.) Core inflation looks set to keep rising as the effects of global demand-supply imbalances persist. And the Ukraine crisis means that the risks to our above-consensus headline inflation forecasts lie... 23rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The Q4 wage data won’t alter the RBA’s view that inflation isn’t sustainably within its 2-3% target band yet, but we still expect the Bank to start hiking in June as inflation surprises to the upside. 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will remain higher in euro-zone core Inflation differentials across the euro-zone are unusually wide, in large part due to differences in energy inflation. But we don’t expect this to last. In the coming years, we think that inflation... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus How does South Africa deal with its debt problem? This week’s Budget in South Africa will probably see the government reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. But we think that officials will struggle to stay on this path in the next couple... 22nd February 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Russia/Ukraine and the risks to inflation If a Russia/Ukraine conflict were to materialise, the likely upward pressure on energy prices would keep UK inflation higher for longer via higher fuel prices in the near term and rising utility bills... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s CPI surprise; Norway’s glitterati have dinner The pick-up in underlying price pressures in Sweden in January plays into the hands of the Riksbank’s hawks, who are likely to flex their talons, and makes it even more difficult for Cecilia Skingsley... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening The recent rise in oil prices poses a key upside risk to our inflation forecasts. We already expect rate hikes this year in Korea, India and Indonesia. We think Taiwan, where price pressures have... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2022) Inflation slowed in January but that was entirely down to the base effects boost from the Go To Travel campaign disappearing. While underlying inflation is unlikely to reach 1% until later in the year... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
