Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would a lower inflation target mean for S. Africa? South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago has recently raised the prospect of lowering the inflation target and, in this Update, we answer five key questions on what it would mean... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power cuts and inflation, zero-COVID hobbling tourism The coming week may shine a light on the global impact of China’s power shortages. There are reports of them triggering sharp falls in shipping costs. The producer price data on Thursday will show... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s August shocker The slump in Sweden’s GDP indicator for August brought its economy back below its pre-pandemic level, whereas Norway – which appears to be unencumbered by these headwinds – saw its economy continue... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 10.2% y/y in September was largely a result of the hike in household electricity tariffs last month and, while the headline rate is at – or very close to – a peak... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Chile’s inflation to 5.3% y/y in September suggests that the central bank may once again ramp up the pace of its tightening cycle. We now think it is more likely than not that it will... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about inflation? The recent jump in energy prices will put upward pressure on inflation across the region, but the impact should prove short lived and is unlikely to worry policymakers. 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is stagflation-lite the start of something more serious? With supply shortages set to persist for the next 6 to 12 months, the current period of “stagflation-lite” will persist a while longer. But it is likely to remain a pale imitation of the 1970s... 7th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations The OPEC+ meeting this week triggered a rise in oil prices and, while we expect prices to fall by next year, rising production means that overall oil export revenues for the Gulf economies should... 7th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation to 6.0% y/y and 4.9% y/y in September adds to our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. We expect a further 125bp of... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation accelerated to a fresh five-year high of 7.4% y/y in September and, while this was mainly driven by a sharp increase in food inflation, the central bank is likely to continue its... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
