Latin America Economics Weekly US-Venezuela ties, Brazil fuel price hike A meeting this week between officials from the US and Venezuelan governments could be the first step on a long road towards sanctions being lifted on the country. That would be necessary for Venezuela... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23 rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 10.5% y/y in February will be followed by further increases to more than 11% in the coming months on the back of higher fuel prices. While Copom hinted at its last... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation expectations already rising Rising energy prices are set to lift Australian inflation further above the RBA’s target in the months ahead. And while consumer confidence has soured in response to soaring inflation, the high... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Rising energy prices pushed the CPI inflation rate up to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and, given the spike in crude oil and gasoline prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it will climb well... 10th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks likely to push ahead with monetary tightening The latest surge in global commodity prices has intensified the dilemma facing the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed to a near three-year high of 8.8% y/y in February and it will continue to increase over the coming months on the back of soaring global food and energy prices... 10th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates Surging commodity prices have led us to substantially increase our forecasts for consumer price inflation, but the negative impact of higher prices on household purchasing power, and therefore real... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Soaring energy prices unlikely to dent profits much The recent spike in energy prices will lift import prices in Japan by around 10%, but the increase would be twice as large if Russian energy exports were banned. Japan’s flagship manufacturing sectors... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of changing 10-year UST inflation compensation While US 10-year inflation compensation has dropped back today in the wake of a pull-back in the price of oil, the bigger picture is that it had previously surged this week to its highest level this... 9th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation rose to 9.2% y/y in February and, more importantly, the weekly CPI figures up to 4 th March (also just released) show that the collapse in the ruble led to a particularly sharp 2.2%... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to 7.3% y/y in February was mainly driven by a jump in the core rate to 6.6% y/y and the fallout from the war in Ukraine will push inflation up further in the... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Chinese inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. With commodity prices soaring in response to the war in Ukraine, inflation will rise further in... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics New higher inflation forecasts and lower GDP forecasts In response to the news that the US is considering banning imports of Russian oil, which means that commodity prices will probably be higher for longer, we have raised our CPI inflation forecast and... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
