Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached a new high last month. But this largely reflects temporary disruption in a handful of industries from energy shortages, which are already easing... 10th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in inflation in Mexico to 6.2% y/y in October paves the way for another rate hike at the central bank’s meeting on Thursday. However, the surprise fall in GDP in Q3 will probably keep the... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The end of king coal, Korea inflation worries If the ambitious targets laid down by the 2015 Paris Agreement are to be met, then global coal consumption will need to fall sharply and eventually be eliminated. This poses a huge challenge for many... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB pushes back as inflation pressures build ECB policymakers were out in force this week insisting that the Bank will not raise rates next year. We agree that they are very unlikely to do so, not least because we think the Bank’s inflation... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone Our downbeat growth forecasts are largely based on expectations for a deepening downturn in construction and industry. But a worsening COVID-19 outbreak means the biggest near-term threat could be a... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI liquidity measures, fuel tax cuts Recent measures by the RBI to further drain banking sector liquidity have led some to think that a hike in the reverse repo rate is imminent. But we disagree and think that liquidity-withdrawal... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 8.1% y/y last month paves the way for the central bank to hike the one-week repo rate by another 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December. Note: We’re holding... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Upward revision to our Germany inflation forecast The recent surge in energy prices and worsening supply chain disruption will keep Germany’s inflation rate higher next year than we had anticipated. However, we still think inflation will fall from a... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further in October to reach 19.9% y/y but the small drop in core inflation and political pressure on the central bank means that further interest rate cuts lie in... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) Inflation did surprise on the upside in Switzerland in October, but only by a trivial amount, leaving the headline rate at just over 1%. The market is pricing in an increase in policy rates to zero by... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
