Europe Economics Weekly Covid cases and inflation on the rise Inflation releases in Germany and the US this week highlighted how price pressures are still weaker in the euro-zone. Next week, we will get the full breakdown of euro-zone inflation in October, which... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Food prices a key factor behind diverging EM inflation A significant share of the difference in headline inflation between Emerging Asia and other emerging regions has been driven by food inflation, which appears to be related to domestic conditions more... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy constraints easing, autos still struggling Concerns about severe energy shortages in India have eased this week amid encouraging signs of a rebound in coal inventories. But the latest production figures from carmakers suggest that global... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation surge another headwind to recovery The jump in headline inflation in Spain in October was almost entirely down to the electricity component. We do not expect this bout of higher inflation to last, but in the meantime, consumers are... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack More signs that the recovery is hitting the buffers Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy... 11th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market? US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest inflation data less worrying for the ECB than the Fed While inflation will stay well above target in both the US and Germany in the months ahead, the detail of the latest inflation prints seems to confirm that price pressures are likely to be much more... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation compensation revisited US Treasury yields rose sharply following the release of US CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation reached 6.2% y/y in October, reversing some of their recent falls. But, despite the pick... 10th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 0.9% m/m surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The larger-than-expected jump in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, last month, coming alongside a rise in inflation expectations and continued fiscal risks, increases the likelihood that Copom ups... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.3% y/y in October and is likely to remain around 6.0-6.5% over the rest of this year and in early 2022. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (October) The breakdown of October’s inflation data confirms that most of the increase, from 4.1% in September to 4.6% on the HICP measure, was due to higher energy prices. We suspect that inflation will edge... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
