UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) When coupled with yesterday’s decent labour market release, the bigger-than-expected leap in CPI inflation in October makes an interest rate hike in December even more likely. That said, we still... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Oct.) The much-weaker-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Israel in October was due to a sharp fall in airfares, but the big picture is that underlying inflation pressures generally remain soft. We don... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria to 16.0% y/y in October will bolster the case for policymakers to keep their benchmark interest rate on hold in order to support the economic... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) CPIF inflation rose to a 15-year high in October, although the headline rate was just half that reached in the US, for example, and the core rate remained below 2%. Policymakers won’t be losing sleep... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline wholesale price inflation in October was due almost entirely to higher commodity prices, but we think they are now close to peaking. While the RBI will be wary that wholesale... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged higher to 0.8% y/y in October and will probably continue to drift upwards over the coming months. Overall, though, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rampant; Infrastructure week is finally here Headline CPI inflation hit 6.2% last month with core CPI inflation climbing to 4.6%. Energy prices look set to drop back a little over the next couple of months, but core inflation will breach 5%, as... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to continue to underperform as growth headwinds mount The GDP data released this week indicated that in Q3 households were still having a better time than businesses. But consumer spending growth will probably start to weaken before too long as higher... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Upside risks to October inflation lower than in the US The upside surprise to consumer price inflation in the US in October suggests there are also further upside risks in Canada, although the data next week are unlikely to show as large an increase in... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) India’s consumer price inflation edged up in October but remained well below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range. And we expect it to stay there for several months yet, which underpins... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
