Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May

With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

ECB Watch

“Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week

While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the...

5th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (November)

While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Focus

Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration

The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour...

4th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (November)

The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year.

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026

We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations...

3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read

Global Economics Update

Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost

The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But this tailwind is unlikely to be sustained beyond a couple of quarters. And US tariffs will soon hurt China’s...

29th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Growth, inflation and fiscal policy

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of...

29th November 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities

For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (November 2024)

The continued strength of euro-zone services inflation in November reduces the chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50bp in December. But one-off base effects stopped services inflation from...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read