Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (July 2024)

The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD

We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin...

31st July 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany and Spain HICP (July)

The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Is EM central bank independence under threat?

Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Further easing on the cards

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has...

29th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut

The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth

Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation

The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs

We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro...

26th July 2024 · 11 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read