India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update The World in 2022 We expect growth in almost every major economy to slow next year, with the US and China in particular falling some way short of current expectations. At the same time, while headline inflation will... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) November’s detailed inflation breakdown shows that the increase in price pressures is not just due to high energy costs and global demand-supply imbalances for durable goods. Services inflation has... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose at a more modest pace in November, but the increase in the Bank’s preferred measure of core inflation suggests that price pressures are broadening. Note: Central Bank Drop-In –... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation rose to 1.1% y/y in November, and is likely to increase further through the first half of next year. Even so, we expect price pressures to remain subdued, at 1.0-2.0% over the course... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate rose to a slightly stronger-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November but, with core price pressures remaining soft and the economy struggling even before the latest... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation is close to being further above the target than at any point since the UK started targeting inflation in October 1992. This makes tomorrow’s interest rate decision look closer, but on... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages to maintain upward pressure on inflation Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and... 14th December 2021 · 14 mins read
