US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing ahead of Omicron hit The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices... 4th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2021) Headline inflation picked up in November due to another acceleration in energy inflation and a further rise in fresh food inflation. Underlying inflation remained weak, and while it will accelerate... 24th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 10.4% y/y, in mid-December is likely to be followed by further declines in the coming months. Inflation in Mexico edged up in the same period, to 7.45% y/y, but we... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022 Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that... 22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to linger even as headline rates fall The inflation outlook for 2022 will be dominated by three key themes. First, headline rates will fall owing to a mixture of fading re-opening inflation, falling commodity prices, and base effects... 22nd December 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch A hawkish pivot With underlying inflation set to stay uncomfortably high for at least the next six months, we expect most central banks to continue or begin raising interest rates next year. But in some cases... 21st December 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
