Canada Economics Update How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall? While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 26.5% y/y in October to 25.5% y/y in November and, with falls in the pound starting to fall out of the annual price comparison and global food and energy... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India’s government appoints new RBI governor India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe... 6th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will begin cutting the repo rate in April The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today highlights its unease at the current rate of headline inflation. Admittedly, the lowering of the cash... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan: December rate hike still looking more likely than not Conflicting messages by the Bank of Japan have once again left the outcome of the Bank's December meeting wide open, but on balance we're sticking to our forecast of another rate hike in a couple of... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
