Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Despite the further rise in inflation to a multi-decade high, the June data showed some encouraging signs, with the monthly price gains slowing across almost every category. Inflation will begin to... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in inflation in South Africa to 7.4% y/y in June keeps a 75bp interest rate hike on the table at the SARB’s meeting tomorrow. But with policymakers clearly concerned about the weakness of the... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) There are some encouraging signs that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease. But as it is being replaced by stronger upward pressure from domestic factors... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation fight in centre stage at CBN The Central Bank of Nigeria followed up May’s 150bp interest rate hike with a 100bp increase in the benchmark rate today, to 14.00%, as worries about inflation continued to mount. We now expect a 50bp... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (June) Final inflation data for June confirm that price pressures are very strong. Whether or not the ECB hikes by 50bp on Thursday, we think it will be the beginning of an aggressive 12 months of tightening... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Global backdrop lays bare EM vulnerabilities Most large EMs are weathering the environment of rising global interest rates and a strong dollar relatively well. That said, countries with large current account deficits, most notably Chile and... 18th July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Q2 adds some upside risks to our forecast that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift rates to 3.5%, but we still think that weaker economic... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation up, but better news coming The bigger-than-expected rise in CPI inflation to 9.1% in June triggered speculation that the Fed might follow the Bank of Canada with a 100bp rate hike later this month. But the disappointing... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities still face many headwinds We think that several data releases and events over the past week or so lend some support to our view that China’s stock markets will continue to struggle. 15th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Demographics to lift growth, but convergence still distant The latest population projections released by the UN this week reaffirm that demographics will support strong GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long run. But similarly robust income convergence... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian central banks turn hawkish Asian policymakers turned decidedly more hawkish this week, with the central banks of Korea, Singapore and the Philippines, all tightening monetary policy aggressively. Further hikes across the region... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
