Asia Economics Weekly Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening The recent rise in oil prices poses a key upside risk to our inflation forecasts. We already expect rate hikes this year in Korea, India and Indonesia. We think Taiwan, where price pressures have... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2022) Inflation slowed in January but that was entirely down to the base effects boost from the Go To Travel campaign disappearing. While underlying inflation is unlikely to reach 1% until later in the year... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the EM tightening cycle After a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America may now be nearing an end. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates will remain... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, interest rates & the outlook for the UK stock market We think that a backdrop of rising interest rates will help the UK stock market to continue to outperform its US counterpart. 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation rose by more than expected at the start of 2022 and the breakdown suggests that inflationary pressures are broadening, which adds to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising wage inflation will embolden ECB hawks The tightening of labour market conditions in the euro-zone is likely to help push hourly wage growth up over the next couple of years to more than 3% y/y by 2023. This will serve to strengthen the... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.7% y/y in January, and with soft core inflation and a bumpy economic recovery, the monetary tightening cycle is likely to be more gradual than... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation in January from 5.4% to a new 30-year high of 5.5%, the latest rise in oil prices and the new item weights mean that we now think CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 7.9% in... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese inflation continued to drop back last month. Although there are some signs of supply disruption, we think these will be temporary. Factory-gate inflation should moderate further while consumer... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Nigeria was unchanged at 15.6% y/y in January and the headline rate will probably soften only gradually. At this point, however, policymakers are unlikely to hike interest rates in... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi inflation stabilised at 1.2% y/y in January and, while we think it will increase over the coming months, it is likely to hover around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of 2022 and 2023. 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
