Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth strong; recession underway Policymakers may have taken some heart from the latest data published by Indeed which suggests that wage growth has started to edge down. However, wage growth is still very strong and other measures... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB and Norges Bank to hike on “Super Thursday” We expect the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates next Thursday, by 25bp and 50bp respectively, bringing an end to the tightening cycle for the SNB and getting close to the end... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2022) The further fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.9% y/y, last month will help to ease the squeeze on household incomes. But with the prices of many core goods and services still rising rapidly and, more... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Good news on inflation (except in the Philippines) The past week has brought mostly good news on the inflation front. Of the nine countries in the region to have reported November inflation figures, the y/y rate dropped or was stable in eight of them... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer price inflation dropped to its lowest in eight months in November and producer price inflation stayed at a 23-month low. The shift away from zero-COVID could put some upward pressure on... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch End of the tightening cycle approaching We expect the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 2.75%. Signs that the economy is weakening by more than expected might encourage policymakers to nudge down their interest rate... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB set to hike by 50bp; more to come next year There is a case for the ECB to raise interest rates by another 75bp next week, but we suspect that it will instead slow the pace to 50bp as policy is getting closer to “neutral”. This would mean... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to end tightening cycle with 50bp hike The SNB is likely to look through the recent fall in inflation and hike rates by 50bp next Thursday, to 1.0%, in line with market expectations. We now think that this will be the end of the tightening... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back to 7.8% y/y in November but this was driven by weaker non-core inflation; core inflation actually strengthened further. We now expect that... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its fastest pace in five years. The headline rate only is set to only climb higher and the Central Bank of Egypt... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
