UK Economics Update Stagflation may require rate hikes to 3% and cuts thereafter While raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 1.25% to 1.75%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) suggested that rates will probably have to rise further to knock on the head the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The modest rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 79.6% y/y in July suggests that inflation is nearing a peak, but it will remain close to these very high rates for several more months and will... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jul.) Swiss inflation appears to have peaked in July at an enviably low level compared to that of most other advanced economies. That said, the core rate reached its highest level in more than two decades... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing only gradually The sharper fall in job openings in June signals that labour demand is now beginning to ease more markedly, but with the quits rate little changed and no signs of a pick-up in layoffs, labour market... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although the US dollar has faltered over the past couple of weeks, we doubt its bull run is over. 2nd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (June) In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What a stronger yen could mean for the US stock market The surge in the yen against the dollar seems to be a logical, but delayed, response to a shrinking gap between US and Japanese government bond yields. In the wake of big revisions to our forecasts... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt yields to rebound, economics point a Lionesses win If our forecasts that Bank Rate will rise to 3.00% and that high inflation will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates during the coming recession both prove right, then 10-year gilt... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in gilt yields won’t last, equities to trough sooner Given our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00%, we still think that gilt yields have further to rise. However, with attention in the markets... 29th July 2022 · 9 mins read
