US Fed Watch Fed getting close to peak in rates We expect the Fed to downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, taking the fed funds rate to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but there could be one last hawkish sting in the tail. We expect... 25th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4/Dec. 22) Inflation rose further last quarter and remains far too high for the RBA’s liking. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2022) The Q4 CPI data revealed a smaller rise in non-tradeable prices than the RBNZ had expected but, with those prices still rising at a worrying pace, it is not clear that this alone will be enough for... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More evidence of divergence across DMs The flash PMIs for January provide further evidence that the euro-zone economy has so far avoided the deep downturn that most economists anticipated, whereas the US and UK surveys still point to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN back in hawkish mode… for now The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 17.50%, today in a surprisingly aggressive decision. But with incoming data likely to add to evidence of easing price pressures... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The small rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 7.9% y/y, in the first two weeks of January means that there is a growing risk that Banxico delivers a bit more tightening beyond the 25bp... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Rise of fixed-rate loans makes ECB’s job harder The shift away from variable towards fixed-rate mortgages in many European countries over the past 15 years means that it will take longer than in the past for interest rate hikes by the ECB to feed... 23rd January 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation revisions won’t change Bank’s thinking The CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation will be revised up next month but that does not change our view that they will fall sharply over the first half of this year. We think the 25 bp... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2022) Inflation hit 4% in December but due to the government’s energy subsidies we expect it to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target by mid-year. 20th January 2023 · 2 mins read
