US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2022) Brazil’s headline inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 8.7% y/y in August, but hawkish comments from the central bank this week support our view that there will be one final 25bp interest rate... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in core inflation in August took it further above the Norges Bank’s target. With policymakers in hawkish mood, we expect another 50bp rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks. 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Consumer price inflation fell in August and remains below the PBOC’s preferred ceiling of 3%, leaving room for the Bank to ease policy further. Meanwhile, producer price inflation declined to its... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.7% y/y in August will strengthen the case for Banxico to deliver a third consecutive 75bp increase to interest rates later this month. But... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Truss stamps down on inflation The possible policy of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to freeze the utility price cap at £2,500 until sometime in 2024 will dramatically lower the near term path for CPI inflation. Rather than... 7th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus What has happened to the Phillips curve? Hopes that policymakers can engineer a soft landing rest heavily on the belief that wage growth can be tamed without a surge in unemployment. This ‘Phillips curve’ relationship has changed recently... 6th September 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price freeze an effective but expensive sticking plaster If the new Truss government implements a freeze on domestic gas and electricity prices then inflation may peak at around 11% in October this year, rather than 14.5% in January next year as we... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
