Asia Chart Pack Currency rebound provides welcome relief to policymakers Asian currencies have continued to rebound against the US dollar over the past month, and most are now up by around 5-15% against the greenback since early November. Optimism around China’s reopening... 30th January 2023 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upstream price pressures are turning Stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation data from Australia this week underlined the pressure the RBA is still under. But there is also growing evidence that upstream price pressures are... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation pressures easing, but too soon to sound the all clear The data this week provided further signs that goods pipeline pressures are easing. More importantly, we’re starting to see the first concrete signs of an easing in services pipeline pressures. But... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Get ready for a German inflation surprise in January The reversal of temporary subsidies and changes to weightings will probably push headline German HICP inflation back up in January. But the bigger picture remains that the headline rate will fall... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 1675350000 China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Tokyo inflation rose to 4.4% in January as fresh food and services inflation rose. But with the boost from the weaker yen fading and lower commodity prices due to feedthrough, inflation should fall... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s re-opening means for Latin America China’s rapid move away from zero-Covid and the resulting rally in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, but we remain of the view that 2023 will be a challenging year for Latin... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch We think peak deposit rate now likely to be 3½% With a 50bp rate hike at next week’s ECB meeting seemingly a done deal, the main point of interest next week will be any messaging about how much further rates will rise beyond that. We now think that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2 nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Sharp falls in inflation ahead, policymakers turn dovish Inflation looks to have peaked across Emerging Asia, and is likely to fall back more sharply than most analysts expect over the coming year as fuel price inflation drops, the disruption from the... 26th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
