RBI Watch

Staying the course, for now

We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Friday 30th September. Beyond next week, we...

22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long

The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...

22nd September 2022 · 11 mins read

India Chart Pack

RBI’s CBDC may struggle for relevance

The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22...

21st September 2022 · 9 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The fall in inflation in South Africa, to 7.6% y/y in August, marked the first sign that price pressures are turning a corner. But we doubt this will be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to scale...

21st September 2022 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

Disinflationary wave is building

The Fed looks set to deliver a third consecutive 75bp rate hike tomorrow, but if we’re right that inflation will fall back soon, officials will quickly pivot to much smaller hikes. The continued drop...

20th September 2022 · 8 mins read

Canada Data Response

Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August suggest that the Bank of Canada will enact a smaller interest rate hike in October, particularly with the labour market now...

20th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Aug.)

20th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2022)

Headline inflation jumped in August to yet another three-decade high and it still has a stretch higher to climb. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy...

20th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2022)

20th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s fuel subsidies, Brazil’s presidential race

The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation...

16th September 2022 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle

The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will...

16th September 2022 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 22)

16th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Final HICP (August)

Final inflation data for August confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While energy and food inflation are particularly high, measures of underlying and domestic inflation are...

16th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike

RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this...

16th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Stealth intervention would be costly

With the yen falling to a 24-year low against the dollar, the government this week requested exchange rate quotes from the banks which some see as a precursor to intervention. Apart from the Ministry...

16th September 2022 · 5 mins read