US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in January suggests that the downward trend in inflation is slowing. But we still expect the disinflationary process to re-accelerate soon, as easing shortages... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly large jump in headline consumer price inflation in January to 6.5% y/y is a clear challenge to our view that the hiking cycle is at an end. Further signs of the economy coming off the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jan.) The rise in Swiss headline inflation will be of less concern to SNB policymakers than the increase in the core rate to its highest level on record. However, we do not think these increases are the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa triggers disaster law, Nigeria’s polls The declaration of a state of disaster in South Africa’s State of the Nation Address over the deepening energy crisis has grabbed the headlines and, in the small print, there were signs of a... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawks still rule the roost, BCB threats This week’s larger-than-expected interest rate hike in Mexico alongside comments from central bank officials elsewhere suggest that worries about strong underlying price pressures are putting... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: inflation surprise to prompt 50bps hike In most of the region inflationary pressures are continuing to ease and central banks are preparing to bring tightening cycles to an end. A key exception is the Philippines, where a jump in headline... 10th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers expect more hikes after March At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house prices... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Factory-gate prices continued to decline last month thanks to falling commodity prices and waning supply chain disruption. But at the same time, a jump in demand for travel and other services... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Services inflation already slowing Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
