Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consensus is too optimistic about GDP growth The economy expanded at a slower pace in Q4 than most anticipated, and while the second consecutive fall in export volumes in January largely reflects distortions from the Lunar New Year, it’s... 17th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the renewed rise in EM core inflation? EM core inflation jumped to its highest rate in almost two decades in January. That can partly be pinned on China, where core inflation has risen from a very low rate. In most other EMs, core... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tight monetary policy despite peak inflation Inflation across most of Latin America has peaked, but this is mainly an energy story – core price pressures are proving much more persistent. And underlying price pressures are likely to ease only... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) & Nigeria CPI (Jan.) December’s hard activity figures out of South Africa point to a mild contraction in GDP in Q4 and indicate that weakness in the economy is spreading beyond industrial sectors. Elsewhere, the pick-up... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate nudged up from 3.3% y/y in December to 3.4% y/y in January, which came on the back of a small increase in non-food inflation. Inflation is now at or very close... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in services... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4) Norway’s mainland economy put in a much better performance in Q4 than the central bank expected and ended the year with a healthy expansion in December. Together with the continued strength in... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stocks, bonds, and inflation compensation Although they seem to have begun to rise again over recent weeks, we think that investors’ inflation expectations in the US are likely to fall back over the coming months. That would help Treasuries... 14th February 2023 · 7 mins read
