Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will stop hiking at 5.25% Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slowed the pace of tightening at today’s meeting, it still signalled a peak in the overnight cash rate of 5.50% by the middle of this year. Our more... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) With the risk of a wage-price spiral contained, we expect the RBA to start cutting interest rates by year-end. 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 22) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The much smaller rise in core prices in January suggests that headline inflation will fall faster than the Bank of Canada expects, reinforcing our view that the Bank is unlikely to resume raising... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lessons from EM ‘turnaround’ elections Nigeria’s presidential election this weekend could be one of several EM elections this year (including Turkey and Argentina) that see opposition victories and a turn away from unorthodox policymaking... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB’s balance sheet run-off should be smooth Quantitative tightening and the repayment of TLTROs mean that the ECB’s assets are likely to decline by around one quarter by the end of 2024. We expect the repayment of TLTROs to have a negligible... 20th February 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will be deflationary Rent inflation is set to approach 10% as the surge in net migration coupled with lower home completions has pushed rental vacancy rates to record low. But that rise will be overwhelmed by the slowdown... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reassessing the implications of disinflation for US equities While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation easing, but labour market still tight The easing in core services inflation suggests that interest rates won't rise much further, perhaps from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.25% or 4.50%. But we suspect the Bank of England will need to see more... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
