US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stronger than expected 0.4% rise in consumer prices in September, driven yet again by a stronger increase in core prices, nails on a 75bp rate hike at the November meeting and, in contrast to the... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
India Economic Outlook Pace of tightening set to slow The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to... 13th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle has ended but rates will stay high Chile’s central bank (BCCh) became the latest in the emerging world to end its tightening cycle yesterday. But with inflation only likely to fall back towards target in late-2023 and the external... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (September) The reversal of temporary measures to reduce travel costs played a big role in the surge in German inflation in September. But underlying price pressures remain strong and broad based. We continue to... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation edged up to 3.1% y/y in September largely due to stronger food and housing inflation, but we think that the headline rate has now peaked and will drop back over the coming months and... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Beware of misinterpreting the fall in UK inflation compensation A generous interpretation of the recent plunge in inflation compensation in the UK is that it has reflected confidence in the Bank of England’s commitment to tighten monetary policy by as much as it... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation in September to further above the RBI’s 2-6% target range challenges our view that the RBI will slow the pace of tightening. But with food and energy... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a... 12th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2022) The plunge in Brazil’s inflation rate to 7.2% y/y last month (from 8.7% in August) confirms that the central bank’s tightening cycle has ended. But with some goods and services inflation still rising... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.0% y/y in September, its fastest pace in nearly four years as the impact of the falls in the pound fed through. Inflation will accelerate over the rest of... 10th October 2022 · 3 mins read
