US Fed Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow soon Fed officials are gearing up for another 75bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. But that ultra-aggressive pace of tightening won’t continue indefinitely and, while he will be keen to avoid... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Core inflation pressures strongest in CEE A closer look at core inflation across EMs suggests that underlying price pressures have started to ease. But they remain very strong by historic standards in most countries – and particularly so in... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2022) The drop in Brazilian inflation to an 18-month low of 6.9% y/y in the first half of October reinforces the view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is at an end. Even so, the strength of... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 8.5% y/y in October was a bit weaker than expected and, while core inflation edged up again, this was mainly driven by food products. With the Fed still in a... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Oct.) The decline in the composite flash PMI to 47.2 in October took it further below the boom-bust level of 50.0, placing it deeper into contraction territory. This is consistent with recent data that... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policy rate heading toward 5% The data released this week showed that higher interest rates are yet to have much of a negative impact on construction or consumption and that core inflation is proving stickier than anticipated... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Europe’s renewables push to stoke “greenflation” Although the energy crisis in Europe has dealt a blow to the EU’s near-term green ambitions, a combination of economic incentives, NextGenEU funding, and geopolitical expediency will cause the bloc to... 21st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
