Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) November inflation data out of Nigeria came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate picking up to 21.5% y/y and price pressures increasing in m/m terms as well. Together with our expectation... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Only one more hike to come from the Norges Bank Today’s 25bp rate increase by the Norges Bank, to 2.75%, takes it very close to the end of its tightening cycle. But we think the Bank is a long way from pivoting to loosening policy. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation ticked down to 2.9% y/y in November on the back of a drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate will continue to fall back toward 2.0% y/y over the course of 2023. And, if... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Strikes won’t reduce activity in December by much The strikes in December won’t help the economy when it is probably already in recession. But we think real GDP may only be around 0.0-0.5% lower in December than otherwise. More important may be... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Inflation has peaked, but how far will it fall? The Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that CPI inflation has peaked. But with activity holding up and wage growth still strengthening, the 2.0% inflation target is still a long way... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The increase in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.0% was a touch below expectations but it still marks a new 31-year high. With CPIF inflation having risen to well above the Riksbank’s recent... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to a 21-month low in November chimes with the sharper-than-expected drop in headline consumer price inflation released earlier this week. We maintain our... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth slowdown to drive inflation even lower Despite some mixed signals in the recent data, we still expect the tentative easing of labour market conditions already seen to push wage growth lower soon, with that slowdown gathering pace as... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The Fed will still hike its policy rate by 50bp tomorrow and the new projections could show the peak in rates above 5%, but the 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in November provides strong... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
