Africa Economic Outlook Region’s vulnerabilities crystallising The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) Euro-zone wage growth has accelerated this year and we expect it to stay strong. In turn, this will contribute to core inflation remaining above 2% in 2023. 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Leadership changes in South Africa? Ghana’s IMF boost South Africa’s president dodged impeachment earlier this week and is likely to be re-elected as leader of the ruling ANC party over the weekend, but the country’s economic challenges have only grown... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest activity contracted in Q4 December’s flash PMIs suggest that the economic downturn in Q4 in Europe might not be as bad as previously feared. But the PMI fell sharply again in the US. And the surveys are still consistent with... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets not waiting for Fed to catch up with reality Despite the Fed’s continued hawkishness, the further softening in core inflation and weakness of the early activity data in November leave us more convinced that the FOMC will be cutting interest... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks unfinished in their battle with inflation Rate hikes were announced by many central banks this week, including the SNB and Norges Bank which raised rates by 50bp and 25bp respectively. However, inflation forecasts issued by the central banks... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, survey rebound continues Thursday’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Bank is a long way away from pivoting to looser policy. And the strong inflation print in November and rebound in activity surveys in December are only likely... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2023 – Key themes and possible surprises The three main economic themes of 2023 will be falling inflation, peaking interest rates and a recession. Together they add up to a tough year. Things would be much tougher if inflation surprised... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inventory build-up points to looming recession Surges in manufacturing inventories in the BoJ’s Tankan have a strong record in providing early warnings of economic downturns. The strong rise in inventories over the last couple of quarters... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More stringent price cap still not a disaster The proposed price caps for natural gas are more stringent than we had thought because the government intends to regulate prices for the foreseeable future. However, we still think that the impact on... 16th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Dec. 22) December’s flash PMIs point to further annual contractions in industrial output but suggest services spending rebounded towards year-end. 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Recession, disinflation – and eventually recovery Our 2023 prognosis may be a gloomy one, but there are reasons to expect conditions to brighten a bit by year-end. 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank eases off the brakes, but may not halt hikes until 4.50% The Bank of England followed the Fed by slowing the pace of interest rate hikes from 75 basis points (bps) in November to 50bps hike today as widely expected, which took rates from 3.00% to 3.50%. But... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
