Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation in April, to an 18-month low, supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Surveys giving mixed messages at start of Q2 Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite... 12th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Next year’s Shunto will disappoint the BoJ Ueda’s speech in the Diet on Tuesday left open the possibility of the Bank adjusting monetary policy before the policy review announced at the April meeting is completed next year. However, given that... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Bank of Japan kicking the can down the road Governor Ueda presided over his first policy meeting late last month and opted to keep all monetary policy settings, including Yield Curve Control (YCC), completely unchanged. To be sure, Mr Ueda also... 11th May 2023 · 11 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 35-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped to its smallest in more than two years. Although the impact of reopening pushed up services... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may not prevent Treasury outperformance Despite a persistently elevated core rate, today’s US CPI release was not strong enough to detract from our view that slower economic growth and souring risk appetite will support Treasuries and weigh... 10th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How close is the EM easing cycle? Most EM central banks have drawn their monetary tightening cycles to a close now and, if history is any guide, it looks like the conditions will be in place for an easing cycle to start from around... 10th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m gains in headline and core consumer prices in April leaves core inflation at 5.5%, broadly unchanged from its level at the start of this year, further illustrating that the previous... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Egypt’s inflation rate slowed from a near-five-year high of 32.7% y/y in March to 30.6% y/y in April, but it remains well above the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) inflation target range and with the... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal consolidation is put on the backburner The 2023/24 Budget unveiled yesterday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers was something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the modest spending measures proposed by the government will not break the bank, thanks... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
