Japan Economics Weekly Price pressures broadening, 10-year yields at 0.5% There are early signs that the surge in “core” goods inflation is running out of steam, but services inflation is strengthening. Services inflation won’t accelerate fast enough to offset the coming... 13th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors already seem braced for further falls in inflation Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may only have a bit further to fall The latest evidence of disinflation in the US was met with a muted reaction in US government bond markets. This probably reflects that investors’ expectations for inflation, and interest rates, have... 12th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One (more) and done The Norges Bank is one step from ending its tightening cycle. We expect it to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to a peak of 3%. After that it is likely to pause while it waits to assess the... 12th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Core CPI inflation was still an elevated 5.7% in December but, with another more muted 0.3% m/m gain, the three-month annualised rate fell to a 20-month low of 3.1%. Admittedly, the latter is still... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The further easing in headline CPI inflation in December to a 12-month low of 5.7% y/y supports our view that the tightening cycle is in its final throes. We expect just one more hike in the repo rate... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation ticked up in December, while producer price deflation eased. There are some early signs that the transition toward living with COVID is starting to put upward pressure on... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Job Vacancies (Nov. 22) While falling job vacancies point to rising unemployment, the resilience in retail sales coupled with stubbornly high inflation will prompt the RBA to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike next... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Inflation & Retail Sales (Nov. 22) 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2022) The higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation reading of 5.8% y/y last month, coming alongside growing fiscal concerns, will give Copom more cause to delay the start of its easing cycle. 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Worst case scenarios avoided, but outlook still poor There has been a further slight improvement in prospects for the euro-zone in recent weeks. Business surveys suggest that activity is no longer contracting sharply, headline inflation seems to be past... 10th January 2023 · 11 mins read
