Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Tokyo inflation rose to 4.4% in January as fresh food and services inflation rose. But with the boost from the weaker yen fading and lower commodity prices due to feedthrough, inflation should fall... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s re-opening means for Latin America China’s rapid move away from zero-Covid and the resulting rally in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, but we remain of the view that 2023 will be a challenging year for Latin... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch We think peak deposit rate now likely to be 3½% With a 50bp rate hike at next week’s ECB meeting seemingly a done deal, the main point of interest next week will be any messaging about how much further rates will rise beyond that. We now think that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2 nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Sharp falls in inflation ahead, policymakers turn dovish Inflation looks to have peaked across Emerging Asia, and is likely to fall back more sharply than most analysts expect over the coming year as fuel price inflation drops, the disruption from the... 26th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed getting close to peak in rates We expect the Fed to downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, taking the fed funds rate to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but there could be one last hawkish sting in the tail. We expect... 25th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4/Dec. 22) Inflation rose further last quarter and remains far too high for the RBA’s liking. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2022) The Q4 CPI data revealed a smaller rise in non-tradeable prices than the RBNZ had expected but, with those prices still rising at a worrying pace, it is not clear that this alone will be enough for... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More evidence of divergence across DMs The flash PMIs for January provide further evidence that the euro-zone economy has so far avoided the deep downturn that most economists anticipated, whereas the US and UK surveys still point to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
