Latin America Economics Weekly Hawks still rule the roost, BCB threats This week’s larger-than-expected interest rate hike in Mexico alongside comments from central bank officials elsewhere suggest that worries about strong underlying price pressures are putting... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: inflation surprise to prompt 50bps hike In most of the region inflationary pressures are continuing to ease and central banks are preparing to bring tightening cycles to an end. A key exception is the Philippines, where a jump in headline... 10th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers expect more hikes after March At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house prices... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Factory-gate prices continued to decline last month thanks to falling commodity prices and waning supply chain disruption. But at the same time, a jump in demand for travel and other services... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Services inflation already slowing Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged up to 7.9% y/y in January, setting the scene for Banxico to raise interest rates by 25bp, to 10.75%, later today. We think that this will mark the end of the... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Governor Thedéen puts his foot on the brakes The Riksbank’s 50bp rate hike today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds and the emphasis on the exchange rate were a surprise. Possibly this simply reflects the... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Meeting (February 2023) 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its fastest pace since November 2017, on the back of the recent large falls in the pound. This adds to our... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula and the threat to the BCB’s independence Brazil’s president Lula seems to be on the warpath in his quest for lower interest rates and now has the central bank’s (BCB’s) independence in his sights. Were Lula to get his way, the experience... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
