Global Economics Update PMIs: Growth slowing but services inflation still high June’s flash PMIs suggest that not only has activity in advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2, but the outlook has also deteriorated further. This is particularly true in the manufacturing sector... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE can’t get no satisfaction Judging by the heavy criticism of the Bank of England this week, it seems as though it is dammed if it raises interest rates rapidly and damned if it raises them slowly. While we think some of the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BNM to stay on the sidelines, BSP hints at rate cuts Inflation in Malaysia fell again last month, which supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now over. But with growth likely to hold up better than elsewhere in the region, and... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt stands pat, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 18.25% at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting, but with the lingering threat of another fall in the pound and the slightly more... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) The fall in manufacturing PMI readings in June’s flash estimates suggest the recession we’re expecting in the second half might have already begun this month. Meanwhile, the steady fall in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slower growth, falling inflation and interest rate cuts GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity... 22nd June 2023 · 34 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE bares its teeth, but needs to bite harder The 50 basis point (bps) interest rate rise by the Bank of England today, from 4.50% to a near 15-year high of 5.00%, is unlikely to be the last hike given the UK’s higher and longer lasting inflation... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The further decline in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.2% y/y in the first half of June will comfort policymakers at Banxico and ensure that interest rates are left on hold at 11.25% later today... 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June) 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2023) Nationwide inflation played out largely in line with the timelier Tokyo CPI data in May. Headline inflation fell largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom lines up September rate cut The somewhat cautious tone of the statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%) will disappoint those hoping for an interest rate cut... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the UK’s inflation mess Yet another upside surprise to UK inflation today has put the spotlight squarely back on Gilts and sterling, both of which have come under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England policy... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
