UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB’s balance sheet run-off should be smooth Quantitative tightening and the repayment of TLTROs mean that the ECB’s assets are likely to decline by around one quarter by the end of 2024. We expect the repayment of TLTROs to have a negligible... 20th February 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will be deflationary Rent inflation is set to approach 10% as the surge in net migration coupled with lower home completions has pushed rental vacancy rates to record low. But that rise will be overwhelmed by the slowdown... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reassessing the implications of disinflation for US equities While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation easing, but labour market still tight The easing in core services inflation suggests that interest rates won't rise much further, perhaps from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.25% or 4.50%. But we suspect the Bank of England will need to see more... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has core inflation already peaked? A leading ECB dove argued this week that core inflation has passed its peak on some measures. However, these measures are distorted by Germany’s temporary transport subsidies last summer. Underlying... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consensus is too optimistic about GDP growth The economy expanded at a slower pace in Q4 than most anticipated, and while the second consecutive fall in export volumes in January largely reflects distortions from the Lunar New Year, it’s... 17th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the renewed rise in EM core inflation? EM core inflation jumped to its highest rate in almost two decades in January. That can partly be pinned on China, where core inflation has risen from a very low rate. In most other EMs, core... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tight monetary policy despite peak inflation Inflation across most of Latin America has peaked, but this is mainly an energy story – core price pressures are proving much more persistent. And underlying price pressures are likely to ease only... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
