Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB getting close to phasing out its stabilisation tools Hungary’s central bank (MNB) reiterated the message that it’s unlikely to cut its base rate anytime soon, when it left that rate on hold again today (at 13.00%). That said, the MNB offered some signs... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack A near-term fiscal boost Local governments have stepped up their borrowing since the start of the year. They issued RMB860bn in special bonds over the course of January and February, up from an average of RMB105bn per month... 28th February 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Profit margins another potential threat to inflation outlook A widening in profit margins could mean that inflation is slower to fall back to the Bank of England’s 2.0% target than we expect. That would cause the Bank to raise interest rates even further than... 28th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to the latest currency falls? Asian currencies have dropped back over the past few weeks against the US dollar, with the two worst hit currencies (the Thai baht and the Korean won) down around 6% against the greenback since the... 27th February 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and Russia’s invasion, one year on Despite first appearances, financial markets haven’t shrugged off the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and we think the ramifications could continue to be important to investors. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico hawks Argentina is closing in on the next disbursement of IMF funding but, while the economy met many of last year’s performance criteria, the deal is likely to become rockier this year. Elsewhere, the... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Fall in inflation partly due to one-off effects The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in January was partly due to one-off effects, but still reduces the chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to resume raising interest rates... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in activity growth likely to be short lived With markets responding to recent strong data by ramping up interest rate expectations, there doesn’t yet seem to be much need for the Fed to embark on a renewed hawkish turn. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 5.6% y/y in the first half of this month was driven by lower food inflation and won’t ease policymakers’ concerns about the strength of core inflation. We continue... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Inflation hit a four-decade high in January and while we still expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-year thanks largely to the government’s energy subsidies, there are... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s drought, Egypt’s dollar sukuk The effects of another severe drought in Morocco have weighed on growth, pushed up inflation and fuelled pockets of unrest. Supermarkets in Europe have felt the impact too, with many reporting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged down to 7.8% y/y in the first half of February but the further pick-up in services inflation will continue to concern policymakers at Banxico. We had thought... 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
