UK Economics Weekly Improved outlook for inflation, activity and even Brexit It may seem odd that we are revising down our CPI inflation forecast when investors’ concerns about the stickiness of inflation are growing. But the revisions are triggered by the further fall in the... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Turkey fell to 55.2% y/y in February, but underlying price pressures remain strong and the disinflation process appears to be happening more slowly than had been expected. Inflation will... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 23) The unemployment fell slightly in January but we’re still expecting it to rise through mid-year due to an economic downturn. Meanwhile, energy inflation fell by less than we expected in Tokyo as... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the latest rise in government bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation and activity data have fuelled a further rebound in developed market (DM) government bond yields, posing upside risks to our policy rate forecasts. Even so, we think... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring... 2nd March 2023 · 19 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Feb.) February’s increase in core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that significant rate increases are needed. For some time we have been forecasting a 50bp hike at the meeting in two... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 2023) 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry struggling but possibly past the worst The broad-based improvement in the output components of February’s manufacturing PMIs suggests that the worst of the global industrial downturn is already in the rear-view mirror. That said, it is too... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong franc is not the key to low Swiss inflation In our view, the Chairman of the SNB has over-stated the role of the exchange rate in explaining why inflation has remained so comparatively low in Switzerland in the past two years. However... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The renewed rise in headline inflation in Germany, France and Spain in February suggests euro-zone inflation edged up this month, rather than falling as had been expected. With signs that underlying... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
