RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in April, as an increase in non-food inflation offset another drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate should resume its comedown in... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation in April, to a 33-month low, further reinforces our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation continued to defy expectations in April as it slumped to a joint three-year low of 2.3% y/y, which will comfort the central bank. But it is a puzzle as to why inflation pressures... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Sticky core inflation; debt ceiling stand-off continues The April CPI release showed core inflation still remains elevated, but that won't prompt the Fed to resume hiking interest rates when the debt ceiling stand-off looks set to go down to the wire early... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation in April, to an 18-month low, supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has come to an end. 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
