UK Economics Update Why is the UK economy lagging behind? Many of the factors that explain the UK’s chronically weak GDP growth since the pandemic, such as the shrinking of the UK’s workforce and low export growth, won’t disappear any time soon. This... 6th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Switzerland CPI (May.) Another sharp fall in headline and core inflation in May brought Switzerland within touching distance of the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price stability. But with recent comments from Chairman... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased. Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2022/23 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) May’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a four-month low left it below the published consensus forecast and was driven in part by lower services inflation. While further gradual declines in the... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
