UK Economics Weekly Paying particular attention to pay growth The government’s decision to grant pay rises of 5-7% for some public sector workers will probably add to the persistence of inflation and, for the Bank of England, trump the recent easing in some... 14th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) The fall in CPIF inflation, the Riksbank’s target variable, in June was smaller than policymakers expected, which will encourage them to raise the policy rate from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next meeting... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly May wage data hints at virtuous wage-price cycle Regular pay growth was the strongest in May in almost three decades and suggests that we may have underestimated the influence the stellar result from this year’s annual spring wage negotiations will... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update GDP and inflation data support the case for MAS easing Data released today show Singapore's economy remains very weak and we continue to expect growth to come in well below consensus this year. With inflation also falling back sharply, we expect the... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How markets might fare as US disinflation continues June’s soft US CPI print seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could fall back to normal levels without the economy slowing too much, if at all. We continue to think that the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Dubai real estate A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week suggests that there is fresh impetus behind the privatisation drive and that the government is pushing to get the IMF deal back on track. But... 13th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. A... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in June won’t stop the Fed from hiking rates again later this month, but it supports our view that the downward trend in core inflation is set to... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation came in at 4.8% y/y in June, comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. But that’s already old news given the surge in vegetable prices so far in July and the... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 12th July 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s hiking cycle is over The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
