Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short... 9th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy... 8th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. We still... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank still in hawkish mood Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show recovery in global industry still an EM story The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the BoC risk diverging from the Fed? Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large... 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read