Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t worry, there’s still more “in the tin” The 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ took markets by surprise this week and we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. If the economic outlook deteriorates by considerably more... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, trade war escalates, rate cuts While we had been expecting an escalation in US-China trade tensions, China’s decision to allow the renminbi to weaken through 7.0/US$ in response to Trump’s latest tariffs means events are moving... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen adds to speculation over policy easing The renewed escalation of trade tensions has pushed the yen to a 17-month high against the dollar. We consider it very unlikely that the government will respond by intervening on the foreign exchange... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) The latest FX reserves figures are consistent with the People’s Bank (PBOC) having remained on the sidelines of the FX market last month. But the relative calm of July will give way to a more eventful... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will not fear being branded a ‘manipulator’ While much of the market’s focus has been on China, Switzerland appears set to become the first country to meet all three of the US Treasury’s criteria of being a ‘currency manipulator’ later this... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira’s resilience built on shaky foundations The Turkish lira has held up remarkably well in the face of the escalation of the US-China trade war and the recent rise in global investor risk aversion. But with the threat of US sanctions lingering... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention wouldn’t prevent yen from strengthening While Japan’s government will almost certainly refrain from direct intervention on the foreign exchange markets to stem the recent appreciation of the yen, we can’t rule out that the government’s... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What does the fall in the renminbi mean for Asia? Currencies from the rest of Asia have fallen back sharply following today’s drop in the renminbi to below 7.0 against the US dollar, and are likely to weaken further over the coming months. While... 5th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC weaponizes the renminbi The PBOC has allowed the renminbi to fall to its weakest level in a decade in response to trade tensions. It appears to have decided that, given the increasingly dim prospects of a trade deal with the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Twin stock and bond rally probably nearing an end The strong performance of both equities and government bonds this year reflects a view that monetary easing will put the global economy back on track very soon – an outlook that seems too benign to us... 1st August 2019 · 33 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
