Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A meaningful vote for sterling Either a narrow or a heavy defeat in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight would probably prompt the pound to rise. An inconclusive moderate defeat would arguably be the... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The stock market slump is not over In spite of the recovery that has taken hold since the turn of the year, we think that equities have further to fall. It is well known that UK stock indices are heavily weighted towards energy... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies unlikely to recover in 2019 Lower prices of commodities have weighed on the currencies of those countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. Although we generally do not anticipate further large falls in prices in 2019, we... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: dollar peg to stay intact but growth to be weak The fall in oil prices since late last year has cast the spotlight on to Oman’s weak balance sheet and caused the rial to come under pressure. The country’s neutral stance in regional politics means... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines: current account deficit hits record in Q3 One of the key risks to the Philippines over the coming year is a further widening of the current account deficit. Data released earlier in the week showed the deficit widened to 3.0% of GDP in the... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
