Global Markets Outlook Turning economic cycle favours bonds over equities We think that the darkening prospects for the global economy favour high-grade bonds over equities this year. Our forecasts are for the Chinese and euro-zone economies to lose more momentum, and for a... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound to weaken, Gulf support for Lebanon Comments from the Central Bank of Egypt’s governor, Tarek Amer, earlier this week add weight to our view that the authorities will scale back support for the pound. This is likely to result in a... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu has much further to fall The Romanian government’s surprise introduction of a bank tax has put the leu under pressure recently and the country’s wide current account deficit suggests that further currency falls lie in store... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning even more bearish on the Australian dollar We have long forecast that the Australian dollar would weaken against the US dollar in 2019 owing to our bearish view of commodity prices and China’s economy. But changes to our outlook for monetary... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sentiment, not fundamentals, weighing on activity UK politics remains in meltdown. And there are plenty of signs that this is weighing on sentiment. But beneath this, the economy is well placed to benefit if and when the Brexit uncertainty lifts. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawks in Hungary, Erdogan’s enhanced economic powers Hawkish comments from Hungary’s MPC this week support our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more than is priced into markets. Meanwhile, emergency economic powers granted to Turkey’s... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
