Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies will continue to struggle We doubt that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies will be able to regain any of the ground they have lost against the euro over the next year or so. The Hungarian forint is likely to be the... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Record-high dollar not a threat to the economy Despite President Donald Trump’s complaints that the strong dollar is holding back the economy, the dollar’s rate of appreciation matters more than its level and it has risen by only 3% in trade... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2019) After a relatively calm first half of 2019, EM capital outflows probably picked up significantly in August as US-China trade tensions escalated. And outflows are likely to remain larger over the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Current account won’t remain in surplus for long A lower cost of funding via foreign liabilities, a higher return on overseas assets and falling capital goods imports should all support Australia’s current account over the next couple of years... 20th August 2019 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to the yen still lie to the upside The Japanese yen has continued to appreciate and is now close to our year-end forecast of ¥105/$. Though the drivers behind its strength may shift, we expect upward pressure on the yen to persist. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for EM currencies We think that emerging market (EM) currencies will continue to struggle over the rest of 2019 as the global economy remains weak for longer than investors anticipate, the trade war escalates further... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after EM currency collapses? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in 85% of cases in the last 25... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Argentina’s (new) crisis and the hit to EMs The falls in EM currencies today suggest that the South African rand, Turkish lira and many of those in Latin America will remain in the firing line if, as we think likely, concerns about Argentina’s... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rand weakness will continue We’ve cut our end-year rand forecast from an already below-consensus ZAR15/$ to ZAR16.5/$. While risks are growing, we’re holding to our view that the SARB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi The recent weakening of the renminbi has revived a debate over the economic impact of currency depreciation. There will be both winners and losers domestically. But given that China’s government... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
