Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Scope to stand out from the crowd Should a Brexit deal be reached within the next few months, the UK’s financial markets will probably buck the global trend with money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound all rising by more than is... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have intervened little in FX markets last month, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the economy likely to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe-haven flows to support the Swiss franc this year While the Swiss franc has not benefitted much from recent upheaval in markets, including yesterday’s sell-off in US equities, it has been very stable. We expect this to remain the case in 2019, as... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish rates to stay on hold despite krone weakness The Danish krone is now close to the centre of the central bank’s exchange rate band – a level at which it has in the past unilaterally raised interest rates. However, we think it is likely to leave... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie’s strong run unlikely to be sustained A softening economy, slow wage growth and a drop back in oil prices are all reasons to doubt that the loonie’s recent strong run will be sustained. We see the currency declining to $0.72 this year. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi to weaken again, banks boost capital buffers Progress in the US-China trade talks and the dollar’s fall following the US Fed’s dovish policy statement this week pushed the renminbi to a six-month high. But we think that pressure on the currency... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding rupiah, Pakistan-IMF talks breakdown The continued rebound in the rupiah means that further interest rate hikes by Bank Indonesia (BI) are unlikely in the near term, but we think it is too early to call an end to the central bank’s... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A dovish Fed won’t keep the US$ down if the S&P falls Although we expect the US federal funds rate to end 2020 lower than it is now, we don’t think that the dollar will decline this year. The reason is our bearish view of the global economy. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to cut interest rates to 1% The RBA will probably reduce its GDP growth forecasts at next week’s meeting but should still signal that the next move in rates will be up. Our more pessimistic outlook for economic activity, the... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
