India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon and devaluation: a bitter medicine? Pressure is growing on Lebanon’s dollar peg and, in the event of a devaluation, the pound could fall by as much as 50% against the dollar. A messy sovereign default and a deep recession would follow... 19th November 2019 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Another year of recession, mounting debt The Angolan currency’s recent fall will push up inflation and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio even further. While we don’t think that default is an imminent risk, the government will have to tighten... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update South African bonds and the rand likely to sell-off The loss of the South African government’s final investment grade credit rating is already largely priced in, but there are still reasons to be downbeat on the country’s government bonds, and the rand... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s dollar pegs? Many of the non-oil producing countries in the region have tended to support their dollar pegs by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. In Egypt and Jordan... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Protectionist threat from US unlikely to go away The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. But regardless of what the US Treasury decides, the... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for EM currencies We think that the recent weakness in emerging market (EM) currencies will continue during the rest of 2019, as a weaker global economy triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion. In 2020, we think that... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
