Africa Economics Update West Africa’s Eco: Meet the new franc Rebranding the West African CFA franc as the “Eco” will have little economic effect; the new currency seems likely to be governed by the same FX regime as its controversial predecessor. The move may... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities likely to rise more slowly in 2020 than 2019 Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Election eases Brexit handbrake but doesn’t release it While the majority secured by the Conservatives in the election clears the path to a Brexit deal being passed by 31 st January and fiscal policy being loosened in a Budget in February, the resulting... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: peso decline to resume next year The peso has rebounded over the past year due in large part to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit. But with the deficit set to widen again next year as infrastructure spending picks up... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think that the dollar is especially overvalued Despite President Trump’s frequent complaints about the strength of the dollar, its valuation is not especially high in our view and is unlikely to prevent it from rising further in the next couple of... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency falls won’t stop rate cuts The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso both fell sharply over the past week, but we still think that policymakers in both counties will cut their key interest rates in December. Despite positive... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Central bank asset purchases likely to keep yields low Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we... 28th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is a crisis brewing in Taiwan? A sharp rise in the US dollar assets of Taiwanese life insurance companies poses a major threat to the health of the country’s financial sector and could also have consequences for the stability of... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
