Global Markets Update US dollar likely to stay strong even if virus risk fades We think that the greenback will remain strong this year, even if some of its recent strength may unwind. 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of recent moves in bonds & currencies We think that the recent rebound in the yields of many developed and emerging market government bonds will generally continue in the rest of this year, if the coronavirus epidemic is contained. By... 13th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained The Turkish authorities have kept a tight grip on the lira in recent weeks but we don’t think that this can continue for much longer and expect the currency to fall by 20% against the dollar by end... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound strength unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has strengthened further at the start of this year but it is now making exports uncompetitive and, with support from high real interest rates likely to fade, the currency will... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor US dollar’s valuation won’t prevent it from rebounding While the dollar looks overvalued on most metrics, and has risen significantly over recent years, we don’t think that it is very overvalued. In our view, its valuation will not stop it from... 17th January 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s equities & currency likely to underwhelm Optimism about a Phase One deal has driven the rally in Chinese equities and the renminbi since late 2019. But now that the deal has been signed, this ought to be fully discounted in the markets. And... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to continue to support EM equities We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be... 13th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. However, whether Tsai can... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
