India Economics Weekly Can the party continue? Election fever has gripped Indian financial markets this week, with equities and the rupee rallying as it became increasingly clear that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP would secure another resounding... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SEK sell-off and bond market rally have further to run The recent sell-off in the Swedish krona to decade lows against the euro has been driven by a combination of a flare-up in global trade tensions and a dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance. We... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Update PBOC still wary of CNY weakness despite tariff threat The 2% fall in the renminbi since the US-China trade war flared up again reflects market pressure more than a deliberate policy choice – Chinese policymakers have actually been trying to slow its... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the Swedish krona Following the recent flare-up in global trade tensions and dovish shift in the Riksbank’s stance, we have revised down our already below-consensus end-2019 forecast for the krona against the euro from... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves The Turkish central bank (CBRT) seems to have become more inclined to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, despite growing scrutiny about the level of reserves. Growing question... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Policymakers haven’t saved the day We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Four implications of the re-escalation in trade tensions President Trump has threatened an imminent expansion of tariffs against China. We expect this to result in stronger headwinds to growth, more policy easing, a weaker renminbi and a stock market rout. 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the US dollar to make more headway We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: market sell-off intensifies election risks The broad-based sell-off in Argentine assets over the past week or so, triggered by growing political risks, has resulted in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which will weigh on economic... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
