Latin America Economics Update Gauging the impact of Lat Am currency falls The turmoil in Latin American currency markets will push up inflation, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and it already appears to have resulted in strains in corporate bond markets. One... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the moves in commodity currencies The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market mayhem may get worse before it gets better The turmoil in financial markets caused by the global spread of COVID-19 shows little sign of abating, despite policymakers’ efforts to contain the fallout. Our view remains that until evidence... 17th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the Gulf’s dollar pegs survive the fall in oil prices? The collapse in oil prices over the past week has put pressure on the Gulf’s dollar pegs, but we think that a wave of devaluations is extremely unlikely. Large foreign exchange savings provide... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Oil exporters’ currencies set for big falls Risk-off sentiment has already battered the rand, but we think that the Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza will both fall further later this year when policymakers are forced to accept painful... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia The recent fall in the ruble will help to cushion the hit to the Russian government’s revenues resulting from the plunge in oil prices, but it will come at a cost to corporates that have large... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention won’t prevent yen from strengthening We suspect that Japan’s government won’t intervene in the foreign exchange market until the yen hits 90 against the dollar. The key point is that foreign exchange intervention probably won’t prevent... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Brazilian real? The Brazilian real has fallen to a record low and, while our central view is that it will recover some lost ground in the second half of the year, it will remain much weaker than most currently... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies Current account positions in the largest MENA economies (particularly in the Gulf, but also Egypt) have improved over the past few years. But deficits elsewhere remain large. And Algeria, Tunisia and... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Twin rally in equities and bonds unlikely to last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
