Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Donald Trump, not the Fed, to blame for a strong dollar Donald Trump’s assertion on Twitter yesterday that a “way too high” Fed interest rate was responsible for a “devalued” euro and other currencies against the dollar is wrong, at least when it comes to... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the US dollar likely to be temporary Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s current account deficit to widen further Weak export growth has caused Hungary’s current account balance to swing from a large surplus in 2016 to a small deficit, which is set to widen further. One consequence is that the forint is likely to... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Just how weak is the Swedish krona? Swedish policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns that the sharp sell-off in the krona this year has gone too far. But we find little evidence to support the idea that the currency has... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currencies vulnerable to renminbi depreciation The relationship between the renminbi and other emerging market currencies has strengthened in recent years. While the response to renewed US-China tensions has been limited so far, if the renminbi... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Won weakness, election season over The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
